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Back to the good old days of intraday volatility
Well here’s hoping at least. Price action over the last 24 hours has really taken me back in time. We had wild swings up and down in virtually every pair and we were spoilt for choice regarding which...
View ArticleAUD/JPY: Looking bit ‘bottomy’ on short-term charts
Whilst the recent trend has at times been violently bearish, and it is risk-off Friday as well, the short-term charts are disagreeing and look a bit oversold to my contrarian eye. I’m pretty sure that...
View ArticleGPIF news will have significant impact on Yen
Reuters are reporting the following: According to sources, the Japan government pension fund (GPIF) – the world’s biggest with a 1.2trln USD war chest – is being urged to cut low yielding JGB holdings...
View ArticleTrade of the Day, Thursday October 23rd: Looking to sell EUR/JPY
Markets are still pretty choppy and there don’t seem to be any dominant factors influencing the major currencies. Commodities remain influential, with the oil market still looking nervy (and likely to...
View ArticleEUR/JPY: Nasty turnaround catches shorts unawares
The early EUR sell-off into early Europe had me thinking I was right only for the PMI numbers to set off a batch of very nasty short covering. There were obviously plenty of trailing stops above 135.80...
View ArticleLooking for some short-term opportunities in the crosses
The economic calendar will stay light for the next few sessions so we will rely on intraday sentiment/positional swings for some volatility. USD/JPY has found a resistance level at 108.30; Oil prices...
View ArticleCurrency wars -Korea will manage Won to move in line with Yen #FXWWchatroom
The race to the bottom just got even more crowded with Reuters reporting that the Korean vice-finance minister said in parliament that they will manage the KRW to move in line with the weakening Yen....
View ArticleAUD/JPY trading higher in early trade post G-20
USD/JPY is trading above 116.50 in early interbank trade and the AUD/USD is holding steady near .8760 in thin early interbank conditions. The free trade agreement between China and Australia is seen as...
View ArticleCAD/JPY: Easing into market with small short position
The big fall in oil prices hasn’t washed through into the traditional FX proxy, CAD/JPY, but maybe it still will. The daily chart looks very bullish and it’s certainly hazardous trying to pick a top...
View ArticleCAD/JPY: Looking to add to shorts on rallies
This pair hasn’t yet had a major reaction to events in the oil market but if/when it turns, there will be a big run for the exits. Even a relatively modest 38.2% retracement of the vertical move from...
View ArticleUSD/JPY: Selling rallies preferred in short-term
My sources tell me that option players are very heavily skewed in USD/JPY and that hedges will need to be increased as we break fresh ground on the downside. Today’s break below 118.00 saw the first...
View ArticleLonger term JPY positions likely to be tested today
Forget about fundamentals, once the market gets a nasty shock the obvious reaction is to scale back on all open positions and exposure. One of the biggest positions in the market is short JPY and these...
View ArticleUSD/JPY opens higher, more short-term gains likely
The Clinton email saga continues to impact on the FX market and USD/JPY is the proxy trade for betting on the election result. News that the FBI won’t be pursuing any further action against Hillary...
View ArticleFX Market Sentiment & Positioning; week to 26th Jan 2018
Our proprietary analysis of online and social media sentiment in the major FX pairs shows a disparity between professional and non-professional traders. USD sentiment remains 50:50 with professional...
View ArticleJPY Crosses: Worth a very risky contrarian play?
Just having a look at some of the main JPY crosses, GBP/JPY, EUR/JPY and AUD/JPY and whilst they all look suitably bearish given the current risk-off environment, I’m wondering if they aren’t worth a...
View ArticleJPY crosses providing direction for now
EUR/JPY is back at levels last seen over 3 years ago and this is putting the other JPY crosses under pressure as well. USD/JPY has been relatively liquid over the last few months, bar a few nasty...
View ArticleUSD: Bearish momentum starting to accelerate
The AUD/USD is leading the way again as a new trading week gets underway and those who have missed out on the move might get some more joy by focusing elsewhere. Cable is underdone in my biased view...
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Here comes the dip!
AUD/JPY has fallen off faster than I had anticipated which has given me my hoped-for dip in AUD/USD and cable. It’s Friday and Wall Street had another shocker overnight, which means that the risk off...
View ArticleAUD/JPY: Still prefer to sell rallies for test of 70
My overall big-picture view remains the same. The USD will weaken and I’m looking for good medium-term entry levels back into long AUD/USD and long cable positions. My shorter-term view is a bit...
View ArticleTrade of the day: USD/JPY; play volatile ranges
Our survey of market, fundamental and technical analysts suggests the following trade will be worth monitoring today, Jan 20th. USD/JPY: The prospect of increased intraday corporate flows,...
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